The World of Investments and Money

Showing posts with label trading. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trading. Show all posts

Saturday, June 2, 2007

Investment blunders of the rich and famous

I've just finished reading a book on Investments, named "Investment Blunders of the Rich and Famous...and What You Can Learn From Them".

Some of the important advice the author of the book gives to investors, and some of his comments in the book are:

- Beware of cheerleader advisors.

- If you have a clear picture of your preferences for the future and what you need to accomplish them, you simply pick the investment alternative that best meets your needs. However, the person with unclear preferences doesn't pick the alternative that fits the goals; he or she picks the option that looks best compared to the alternatives.

- The willy-nilly approach of most investors gives them a lack of solid foundation from which to make decisions. As a result, investor allocations and stock picks are frequently not aligned with their goals. One consequence is that the typical investor spends time moving money from one investment to another, trying to meet an obscure goal. Investing without a plan, or road map, leads to a lack of discipline. The lack of discipline allows your psychological biases and emotions to invade the process

- The more active the investor, the worse the net return. Cost of trading eats away a big part of the investment. Active trading magnifies your emotions and psychological biases that cause these bad choices.

- Investors don't like to sell losers, only winners. They sell when the stock is going higher and hold on to the stock when it is going low. This is not a good strategy.

- Investors have fixed their sights on the purchase price. This is called anchoring. Investors frequently anchor their hopes to fixed prices. The purchase price is one anchor. The highest stock price the investor has seen also becomes an anchor. Investors typically wait for the stock's price to reach these anchors before making a trade.

- Gamblers tend to treat winnings as if the money is not quite theirs yet. Their behavior seems to suggest that the profits are still the casino's money. Specifically, the feeling of betting with someone else's money causes you to accept too much risk. Similar behavior could be seen in the stock market, too.

- Many investors have realized the alluring trap of frequent trading and using debt to buy stocks. People have gone bankrupt when they borrow to trade.

- In order to earn a high return, you must take market risk. We want to take market risk while avoiding firm-specific risk. This is because we are compensated for market risk, but not for firm-specific risk. If you own just one stock, you are taking both types of risk. In fact, most of the risk you are taking is firm-specific risk. However, if you add one randomly selected firm to the firm you hold, you reduce the total risk in your portfolio by 24%. This risk reduction is completely due to the reduction in firm-specific risk. Add two more randomly selected stocks and the total risk in your portfolio is only 60% of the risk of holding just one stock.

- It now makes sense to reduce the firm-specific risk in your portfolio further by holding over 20 randomly selected stocks. In fact, a 30-stock portfolio is optimum.

I found the book title a misnomer since the book was about general Investment theories and not about investment blunders of the rich and famous, but it was an interesting read.

Monday, May 28, 2007

Gambler's Fallacy

There are people who see patterns in random data and try to predict the future based on such patterns. Probability theory states that for an unlimited set of trials, the numbers in a game should come up equally or the same number of times.

For example, a coin when flipped a given number of times, should have equal number of heads and tails. So, if the coin has been flipped 5 times and the outcome have been head, head, tail, head, head, the outcome has not been what was perceived. A person might assume the chance of the next outcome being tail is more as it has only occurred once in the last five tosses. The reality is that the next toss has equal chance for tail and head, both have 50% chance. The past events don't mean anything for the future outcome. But, the person thinks there'll be an unknown self-correction that will skew the results in favour of tail to make it more balanced as per probability theory. This belief is known as the gambler's fallacy.

There are similarities in such beliefs with trading. Predicting the price change at any time is like flipping a coin. Most of the patterns that are found are a result of the random data searched. These patterns are not likely to repeat in the future. They can't be used to make predictions. But people often make such predictions and others fall for them.

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Online trading

Looking at the market dive my enthusiasm to try out online trading has kind of worn off now. :)

Sunday, December 10, 2006

Online trading or Mutual Funds?

To follow up on my last post, a friend told me that ICICIdirect has good online trading service. But now I am in a dilemma. Would it be worthwhile for me to jump into online day trading? Mutual Funds (MFs) seem much safer in the expert hands of fund managers even though they have some fee associated with them. I've read somewhere that MFs have to pay less tax than traders and so in the long run MFs could yield better return. Need to chose MFs which are diversified.
Guess I will wait for a while to learn more about the pros and cons of Online trading vis a vis MFs.

Saturday, December 9, 2006

Looking for a good online trading site

I'm looking for a good online trading site. I've heard of a few like icicidirect, kotaksecurities, sharekhan and 5paisa. Unfortunately, most of them seem to like only IE as a browser as clearly mentioned in their site. Now we don't use Windows at office where most of my weekdays are spent, and from where I'd have to do the trading. Are there any good sites which go beyond Windows IE? I'm specifically looking for one which can be used with Firefox.

Looking at the Gateway account info at kotaksecurities, they ask for a margin of 20,000. Does it mean I've to invest at least 20,000 to begin with? I didn't get any info there about what it means.
20k is a bit too much for trading for a newbie like me. I am looking to start with an amount below 5,000 to learn the tricks of the trade. If anyone has knowledge and experience with a good online trading site, I'd like to know more. Thanks!